忘川河。空间 Lethe's space

抢龙尾

2012-01-29T22:47:00.001+08:00

道具：手帕

进行方式：

1. 介绍每一队排成一列，每个人并以双手搭在前面人的肩上，不可放开；最前面的一个人就是龙头，最后一个人就是龙尾。龙尾的人在背后腰上绑一条手帕。哨音响后，龙头就必需去抓对方龙尾的手帕，先抓到的為胜方。

备注：

1. 注意若是有人在比赛过程中不小心鬆手，应立刻暂停或判定胜负。

2. 主持人应特别小心游戏成员的安全。

两军对立

2012-01-26T20:34:00.000+08:00

人数：两组人数最好均等

道具：有色胶纸或其它可划分出中线的道具。

进行方式：

1. 介绍场地：一条中线，距中线约五至八公尺处各有一条安全线。

2. 开赛时，每一队各派出一个代表，一对一地对峙在中线的两侧；在安全线后拍成一线的其他组员喊“剪刀石头布”。

3. 猜拳赢的去抓输的，输的必需逃进背后的安全线。结算每一队抓的人数来定这一回合的输赢。

备注：

1. 猜拳中的剪刀，石头和布以身体表达：

剪刀：双手往上举呈V字形

石头：双手握拳放在胸口前

布：张开双手与双脚呈大字形

2. 主持人要准备中线，安全线。

3. 要注意：如果有人逃跑的路线太弯曲，必需制止，否则会大乱。

4. 避免造成伤害，可将规则定為：摸到就算是抓到了！

火烧森林

2012-01-22T12:00:00.000+08:00

人数：数十人

进行方式：

1. 主持人让各组先围在指定的范围里面。

2. 然后主持人挑选一组来“烧”，也就是解散那一组的成员，那一组里面的人就必须去其他的“森林”寻求庇护。

3. 不能超过“森林”的制定范围，到最后将会出现一组大片的森林而已。

人生

2012-01-18T20:01:00.003+08:00

人生
犹如一次单程旅行，
只能一路向前。

偶能回头怀念，
但绝无法停步不前。

人生

2012-01-18T20:00:00.000+08:00

人生，
便是一边背负着过去，
一边向前迈进。

每前进一步，
便会得到一点东西，
同时又失去一些东西。

不会永远总是获得，
也不会永远只是失去。

哼哈报数

2012-01-17T20:41:00.002+08:00

进行方式：

1. 坐成一个圆圈。由某个游戏成员开始报数（从“一”开始）。

2. 每逢有“七”字或七的倍数时，该游戏成员必须看向左边或右边的朋友（自己不能报出那数字），被看的游戏成员继续报“七”字或七的倍数接下来数目字。把游戏继续下去。

3. 若有成员报错数字或反应不来，将会进行惩罚。

记名游戏

2012-01-16T20:15:00.001+08:00

进行方式：

1. 各组坐成一个圆圈。第一个人说自己的名字。

2. 第二个人重复第一个人的名字然后说自己的名字

3. 第三个人重复第一跟第二个人的名字然后说自己的名字... ...以此类推。

青蛙跳水

2012-01-15T10:12:00.002+08:00

进行方式：

1. 各组坐成一个圆圈。第一个人说：“一只青蛙”

2. 第二个人说：“跳下水”。
3. 第三个人说：“扑通”

4. 第四个人说：“两只青蛙”
5. 第五个人说：“两只青蛙”之后，跳下水，跳下水，扑通，扑通... ...以此类推。
6. 直到有人反应不过来，或出错，将出局被惩罚。

小杀手

2012-01-14T23:48:00.000+08:00

人数：最好十人或以上。

进行方式：

1. 所有成员坐成一个圆圈，然后各自闭上眼睛，低下头。

2. 主持人会在圆圈外走动，并从成员中偷偷选选出“小杀手”（在其肩膀上点一下）。

3. 当主持人选了“小杀手”后，“小杀手”便可抬起头向主持人指出要“杀害”的对象。然后再次闭上眼睛，低下头，乔装成其他成员。

4. 然后主持人会指示成员们抬头、睁开眼睛，然后让“小杀手”指定“杀害”的对象出局。

5. 接下来剩余成员将可互相猜测，他们当中谁是“小杀手”，被大多数成员怀疑是“小杀手”的人将会被杀出局。

6. 如果被成员们“杀害”出局的人并非“真凶”，将继续重复第1 、3、4 & 5 的动作。直到成员们找出真正的“小杀手”，如果剩余成员剩下总人数的三分之一或者是四分之一，便是小杀手赢了。

备注：主持人在此游戏中，实行主导（选择小杀手）以及引导成员们发表看法以让他们互相猜测。属于中立、不露声色的角色。

捷径（shortcut）

2011-10-12T21:39:00.000+08:00

成功，是不会有所谓的捷径的，
只有失败，才会有所谓的捷径。

there are no any shortcuts can let us achieve success,
only the failure will have the shortcut.

郁蓝之空

2011-08-23T20:45:00.003+08:00

风潇潇，
雨渺渺，
风雨飘渺，
是个匆匆回乡，
赶赴奔丧的晨... ...

一路上，
天空阴森森、灰蓝蓝地，
如人心般阴郁。

到底是阴沉的天让人心阴郁，
还是人心将天空的晴蓝变灰？

‘忘川’给我的启示--忘记&记住

2011-07-12T21:21:00.001+08:00

忘记昨日失败的挫折和哀伤，
记住昨日失败的原因和教训。

忘记昨日成功的骄傲和快感，
记住昨日成功的理由和诀窍。

忘记该忘记的昨日，
记住该记住的昨日。

让该忘记的成为过去的片段，
让该记住的成为将来的养料。

当下是踏实的存在，
明日又是新的开始。

幸好我卑微 - 记阅某博文而有感

2011-05-21T00:03:00.001+08:00

有时，
人必须得庆幸自己的出身并不特别显赫，

因自知出生低微，
才会努力积极向学。

因自知渺小，
因而意识到世界的宽广。

因自知自己需要低头谦卑的学习，
才会愿意把自己的头抬低一点，
因此才会看到前面更加宽阔的世界。
而不是只会把头抬得高高的，
只看到自己头上的那一小片天空，
犹如坐井观天。

小黄猫

2011-05-17T21:36:00.000+08:00

拍摄日期：17.5.2011

拍摄器材：Nokia 5310

梦醒时分

2011-05-17T17:34:00.000+08:00

哪一天，
有钱、有闲、有健康的身体，
我要买一张很大很大的地图，
贴在墙上，
然后向着它丢飞镖，
丢中哪里就去哪里。

要去走那里的街道，
吃那里的美食，
看那里的文化，
听那里的传说... ...

铃铃～～
梦醒时分～～～
起床咯～～～～～

终有一天，
我会悠哉游哉的去某个地方旅行。

走那里的街道，

吃那里的美食，

看那里的文化，

听那里的传说... ...

喜欢教堂婚礼的理由～

2011-05-08T23:19:00.002+08:00

虽然不是基督教徒，
但是喜欢教堂婚礼，
不仅喜欢它的庄严圣洁，
更喜欢那一句

“患难与共、不离不弃，用一生来爱你，与你相守到老。
不管富贵或是贫贱、健康或是疾病、年轻到年老，都不改此约，不变此心；
愿意用一生爱你、帮助你、体谅你、安慰你、陪伴你、支持你。”

尽管世事多变，
但是只有你，
我永远都不愿改变... ...

不像华人古代的婚礼，
嫁进去时有一堆礼仪要做，
要拜天地，拜祖宗，拜来拜去，
但是丈夫却可以很容易就找到借口休妻。（查看‘七出’之条）

嫁进去辛苦，
被赶出来容易。

当初受你拜拜的人却都不见得会出来帮你，
那拜来干嘛？
嫁进去干嘛？
当作是潇洒走一回吗？

小黄猫

2011-04-23T03:03:00.002+08:00

小黄猫唱：“对面的小母猫，看过来，看过来～看过来～”（还‘单眼’发电）

小黄猫：“你在偷拍我吗？”

拍摄日期：22.4.2011

巨人。阴影

2011-02-09T14:38:00.000+08:00

站在巨人的阴影下，
只看到巨人的伟大，
忘了他也曾经渺小，
也不知道他是如何变得今日的伟大。

讨厌的橙和喜欢的桔

2011-01-10T02:03:00.002+08:00

被迫拿着不喜欢的橙，
遥望喜欢的桔。

为了吃下被迫握在手中不喜欢的橙，
只好遗忘那遥远的喜欢的桔。

好不容易终于吃完手中那不喜欢的橙，
竟然忘记了自己原来喜欢的是那遥远的桔。

没办法，
只好继续吃着那不喜欢的橙。

永恒

2011-01-08T23:44:00.002+08:00

世上唯一不变的东西就是 - 世界每天都在变
世上是没有永恒的
包括我们自己
但是
愚蠢的我们总是奢望永恒
奢望美好的永恒。。。

圣诞

2010-12-30T19:31:00.000+08:00

拍摄日期：10.12.2010

拍摄日期：13.12.2010

别人的生辰；

我们的狂欢。

2010-12-05T21:25:00.001+08:00

“生命里的过客”这一标签的新旧内容已经改名为“我的宠物世界”并已转移至《忘川。小小创作空间》：http://lethe921.blogspot.com/

睡猫

2010-11-27T22:30:00.000+08:00

拍摄日期：27/11/2010

拍摄器材：Nokia 5310

《你不知道的事》&《我不知道的事》&《你/我不知道的事》

2010-11-05T01:50:00.008+08:00

看《恋爱通告》时听到这首歌，感觉还蛮不错的，尤其是配合剧情王力宏唱这首歌的时候，感觉真的很到位。
但是我后来无聊的想一想，其实这首歌只需要换几个字就可以变成适合刘亦菲在戏里唱的歌了，所以就按照我自己的想法改了该，把《你不知道的事》变成《我不知道的事》，再外加一个《你/我不知道的事》的男女合唱版，哈哈！
-------------------------------------
《你不知道的事》
（蝴蝶眨几次眼睛才学会飞行
夜空洒满了星星但几颗会落地
我飞行但你坠落之际
很靠近还听见呼吸
对不起我却没捉紧你

你不知道我为什么离开你
我坚持不能说放任你哭泣
你的泪滴像倾盆大雨
碎落满地在心里清晰
你不知道我为什么狠下心
盘旋在你看不见的高空里
多的是你不知道的事） x2

oh wow oh~

我飞行但你坠落之际

ho~oh~~

你不知道我为什么离开你
我坚持不能说放任你哭泣
你的泪滴像倾盆大雨
碎落满地在心里清晰
你不知道我为什么狠下心
盘旋在你看不见的高空里
多的是你不知道的事

oh~... ...
-------------------------------------
《我不知道的事》
（蝴蝶眨几次眼睛才学会飞行
夜空洒满了星星但几颗会落地
你飞行但我坠落之际
很靠近还听见呼吸
对不起我没让你捉紧

我不知道你为什么离开我
你坚持不能说放任我哭泣
我的泪滴像倾盆大雨
碎落满地在心里清晰
我不知道你为什么狠下心
盘旋在我看不见的高空里
多的是我不知道的事） x2

oh wow oh~

你飞行但我坠落之际

ho~oh~~

我不知道你为什么离开我
你坚持不能说放任我哭泣
我的泪滴像倾盆大雨
碎落满地在心里清晰
我不知道你为什么狠下心
盘旋在我看不见的高空里
多的是我不知道的事

oh~... ...
-------------------------------------
《你 / 我不知道的事》合唱版

男：（蝴蝶眨几次眼睛才学会飞行

夜空洒满了星星但几颗会落地

我飞行但你坠落之际

很靠近还听见呼吸

对不起我却没捉紧你

你不知道我为什么离开你

我坚持不能说放任你哭泣

你的泪滴像倾盆大雨

碎落满地在心里清晰

你不知道我为什么狠下心

盘旋在你看不见的高空里

多的是你不知道的事）

女：（蝴蝶眨几次眼睛才学会飞行

夜空洒满了星星但几颗会落地

你飞行但我坠落之际

很靠近还听见呼吸

对不起我没让你捉紧

我不知道你为什么离开我

你坚持不能说放任我哭泣

我的泪滴像倾盆大雨

碎落满地在心里清晰

我不知道你为什么狠下心

盘旋在我看不见的高空里

多的是我不知道的事）

合：oh wow oh~

我飞行但你坠落之际（你飞行但我坠落之际）

合：ho~oh~~

你不知道我为什么离开你（我不知道你为什么离开我）

我坚持不能说放任你哭泣（你坚持不能说放任我哭泣）

你的泪滴像倾盆大雨（我的泪滴像倾盆大雨）

碎落满地在心里清晰（碎落满地在心里清晰）

你不知道我为什么狠下心（我不知道你为什么狠下心）

盘旋在你看不见的高空里（盘旋在我看不见的高空里）

多的是你不知道的事（多的是我不知道的事）

合：oh~... ...

流泪

2010-10-12T00:19:00.001+08:00

值得你为他流泪的男人，
绝对不会舍得让你为他流泪。
只有不值得你为他流泪的男人才会舍得让你为他流泪。

所以，
女孩们，
请省回你们珍贵的眼泪吧！
别再为了不值得的人流泪了。

独一无二

2010-09-13T19:56:00.000+08:00

这世界上的每一个人其实都是独一无二的，
真因为每一个人都独一无二，
所以没有一个人是最特别的，
大家都一样。

因此，
并没有人得理所当然的得到最好的待遇，
并没有人能理所当然的要别人对自己好。

因为，
每个人都是特别的，
每个人也是平凡的。

2010-09-02T00:25:00.000+08:00

只要是跟对的人在一起，
无论是去哪里都像是去旅行；
无论是做什么都像是在节庆。

梦里的”金句“

2010-08-29T23:40:00.000+08:00

“当心痛到极致时，
就会麻痹，
不会再痛了。。。”

昨天早上在梦里面讲的句子（梦的内容不打算分享），直到现在才的空写 T-T

可恨的牛郎，可怜的织女

2010-08-18T22:59:00.005+08:00

七夕刚过，人人都说七夕是中国的情人节，也听人说过牛郎织女的爱情是段纯真、真挚的爱情。

今天为了写这篇文章，我顺便上网查了查，发现原来牛郎织女真的有好几个版本。然而我小时候最常听到的版本却大概是这样的：

“很久很久以前有个男人叫牛郎，他自幼丧失父母，哥嫂不愿意跟他一起过日子，只给了他一条牛在外自己过活。因此牛郎就跟他那条老牛开始了相依为命的日子。

某日，那老牛突然开口对牛郎说话，并告诉牛郎明日在河边会有七位仙女下凡洗澡，让他偷偷把最小件的衣服藏起来。牛郎虽半信半疑，但第二日依然到了河边，果然看见七位仙女在河边洗澡，于是他就按照老牛所说的把最小的一件衣服给藏了起来。

七仙女洗澡后，各自上岸穿上衣服飞回天庭，留下了因找不到衣服而无法回天庭的织女。看见一丝不苟，焦急万分的织女，牛郎不仅没马上上前道歉并且归还衣服，还乘机要织女嫁给他。

没了衣服织女根本就无法回天庭，于是织女就下嫁了给这个贫困的凡夫俗子。几年后，织女诞下了一子一女。虽然，天上一日地上一年，但是织女不见了的事终究很快的被王母娘娘知道了，震怒的王母娘娘马上派遣了天兵天将把织女抓回天庭。

身为凡夫俗子的牛郎只好眼睁睁的看着织女被带回天庭。这时老牛又说话了，它让牛郎在自己死后把自己的皮剥下，然后披上，这样他就可以飞上天庭寻找织女。

牛郎依言剥下了牛皮带着孩子飞上天庭寻找织女，但是黄母娘娘并不动情，决然的以银河相隔分离他们。从此以后，牛郎织女只得在七月初七通过喜鹊筑成的桥相会。”

小时候，看这故事的时候很稀奇的一点都不觉得这个故事很感动咯！那时候不知道是为什么，现在长大了终于明白了。

那是因为，我一点都不觉得这段是一个真正的爱情。从一开始，织女就是被迫下嫁的。若非她的衣服被偷，一丝不苟，回家无门，茫然无助，进退两难，她真的会如此轻易的答应下嫁吗？答案应该是不会的，因为故事里从头到尾都没提过牛郎把偷来的衣服归还给织女，即使织女已经依言下嫁于他并且为他诞下子女，牛郎始终没有把能够放心的把那件让她回家的衣服还给她。这是为什么？因为牛郎害怕织女一旦得到了衣服，就会奔回天庭，从此以后，牛郎再也无法得到织女。

也有人会问，那为什么织女被抓回天庭后，会如此伤心欲绝，对牛郎如此不舍？没错，织女的确是伤心欲绝，但是不一定是因为跟牛郎从此分离而感到不舍，织女为从此与自己的亲生骨肉生离死别而伤心欲绝会更加有可能。母亲的天性，无论孩子的父亲是谁，只要是自己怀胎十月，含辛茹苦抚养长大的孩子，都是母亲的心头肉，硬生生的被拆散怎有不伤心欲绝的道理？牛郎似乎知道自己的分量不够重，所以还是带着年幼的子女一起上天庭了。这样织女即使不看僧面也会看佛面。因此每年的鹊桥相会，织女最想会的不是牛郎，更有可能的是自己的一对子女。她因伤心而流下的泪的对象不是这个乘人之危逼婚的牛郎，而是自己那一对苦命的子女。

我这样说，肯定有很多人无法接受，因为大家从小就被灌输牛郎织女是真心相爱的，他们的爱情是多么的凄美。即便是相爱，也可能是因为斯德哥尔摩症候群的影响，受害者才会爱上加害者。再加上，原本住在天庭的织女，突然坠落凡尘，人地两疏，唯一能够依靠的就只有牛郎了，不仅有了夫妻之实，还有了儿女。

根据斯德哥尔摩症候群，再按照古代女人嫁鸡随鸡善于认命的性格，织女在认清自己再也无法回去天庭，并且与牛郎有了夫妻之实后，会彻底的认命跟死心塌地的从此跟随牛郎，并不出奇。但唯一可以肯定的是，织女在衣服被偷后一丝不苟的被牛郎这下三滥（偷看女子洗澡，偷偷摸摸的偷人家衣服，恰不知耻的乘人之危逼婚的无赖，不叫下三滥叫什么？）乘人之危逼婚时，她当时有的一定不是爱情，而是无助跟恐慌。

所以所谓真挚的爱情的出现，应该是织女跟牛郎有了夫妻之实，并为他生儿育女之后的事情了。

以上是我对这个版本的感想以及个人见解，如果是跟我看这同一版本的《牛郎织女》故事长大的同学，如果对我的看法无法接受的话，其实也没关系，因为每个人的爱情观都不一样。我仅仅觉得，婚姻与爱情不应该通过如此奸诈的手段，威逼利诱而获得而已，同时也应该以尊重对方的意愿为首。

睡懒觉中。。。

2010-08-18T21:22:00.000+08:00

拍摄日期：2010年8月14日

拍摄器材：Nokia 5310

小白猫不见了之后，

白肥婆依旧在过它的日子，

那天见它在人间的摩哆上睡懒觉就去偷拍它。

它平时太谨慎了，

一看有人靠近它就主动上前撒娇，

很少可以拍到它睡懒觉，

那天算是破天荒吧，哈～

白色母女

2010-08-18T21:18:00.000+08:00

拍摄日期：2010年7月26日

拍摄器材：Nokia 5310

那天下了雨，

它们应该是淋到雨了吧，

所以有点肮脏。

小白猫不知何故，

有一只眼睛受了伤睁不开，

那天之后我就不曾再见过它了。。。

不知它去了哪里，

希望它在某个地方平安无事啦！

‘前无古人，后无来者’的被记大过的理由

2010-08-13T15:48:00.001+08:00

曾听过一个‘前无古人，后无来者’的被记大过的理由，那就是：

‘XXX 于 X年X月X日，在课间休息时向别班女生单膝下跪求婚。’

不得不注明的是，该女生是该校某位资历很深的老师的侄孙女，而且那男生和那个女生才13，4岁而已。

P/S: 原篇于2010年7月24日，上载在忘川。小小创作空间，现改上载与此。

执着

2010-07-20T18:49:00.000+08:00

对于某些人，

对于某些事物，

是现在的你，

无论如何都要抓住不放，

无论如何都不要放手的。

虽然，

知道世界并不会因此而毁灭。

但是，

现在的你就是放不了手。

受到惊吓的小白猫

2010-07-20T02:57:00.005+08:00

白肥婆生的小孩，

真的很可爱咧！

白白的，

小小的。

可能是因为白肥婆还在附近的关系吧，

所以它即使怕人，

但又不怎么躲。

希望它能够平安健康的长大（^v^）

P/S：个人比较喜欢第二张

拍摄日期：19/7/2010

拍摄器材：Nokia 5310

下輩子，無論愛與不愛，都不會再見 (轉貼)

2010-07-09T01:01:00.003+08:00

港電臺知名主持人梁繼璋曾給兒子寫過一封信, 這封信很快流傳於各大網站,很多父親看後感觸很深，我覺得不只給兒子,其實適合所有人看！下輩子，無論愛與不愛，都不會再見 ----送給兒子的備忘錄

我兒:寫這備忘錄給你，基於三個原則：

(一）人生福禍無常，誰也不知可以活多久，有些事情還是早一點說好。

(二）我是你的父親，我不跟你說，沒有人會跟你說。

(三）這備忘錄有記載的，都是我經過慘痛失敗得回來的體驗，可以為你的成長省回不少冤枉路。

以下，便是你在人生中要好好記住的事：

1.對你不好的人，你不要太介懷，在你一生中，沒有人有義務要對你好，除了我和你媽媽。至於那些對你好的人，你除了要珍惜、感恩外，也請多防備一點，因為，每個人做每件事，總有一個原因，他對你好，未必真的是因為喜歡你，請你必須搞清楚，而不必太快將對方看作真朋友。

2.沒有人是不可代替，沒有東西是必須擁有。看透了這一點，將來你身邊的人不再要你，或許失去了世間上最愛的一切時，也應該明白，這並不是什麼大不了的事。

3.生命是短暫的，今日你還在浪費著生命，明日會發覺生命已遠離你了。因此，愈早珍惜生命，你享受生命的日子也愈多，與其盼望長壽，倒不如早點享受。

4.世界上並沒有最愛這回事，愛情只是一種霎時的感覺，而這感覺絕對會隨時日、心境而改變。如果你的所謂最愛離開你，請耐心地等候一下，讓時日慢慢沖洗，讓心靈慢慢沉澱，你的苦就會慢慢淡化。不要過分憧憬愛情的美，不要過分誇大失戀的悲。

5.雖然很多有成就的人士都沒有受過很多教育，但並不等於不用功讀書，就一定可以成功。你學到的知識，就是你擁有的武器。人，可以白手興家，但不可以手無寸鐵，謹記！

6.我不會要求你供養我下半輩子，同樣地我也不會供養你的下半輩子，當你長大到可以獨立的時候，我的責任已經完結。以後，你要坐巴士還是Benz（賓士），吃魚翅還是粉絲，都要自己負責。

7.你可以要求自己守信，但不能要求別人守信，你可以要求自己對人好，但不能期待人家對你好。你怎樣對人，並不代表人家就會怎樣對你，如果看不透這一點，你只會徒添不必要的惱。

8.我買了一二十年六合彩，還是一窮二白，連三獎也沒有中，這證明人要發達，還是要努力工作才可以，世界上並沒有免費午餐。

9.親人只有一次的緣分，無論這輩我和你會相處多久，也請好好珍惜共聚的時光，下輩子，無論愛與不愛，都不會再見。珍惜當下

这样，就够了。。。

2010-06-24T02:25:00.003+08:00

不需要英俊的男人，

不需要富有的男人，

不需要有才华男人。

只需要一个，
当你开心时，可以在他的面前大声的笑，
当你难过时，可以在他的面前大声的哭，
当你委屈时，可以向他痛快的倾诉，
当你生气时，可以对他用力的发脾气。

他，
当你开心的在他面前大声的笑的时候，
他不一定要跟着你大声的笑。
在你难过的在他面前大声的哭的时候，

他也不一定非要用逗你笑的能力不可。

当你委屈时向他痛快的倾诉的时候，

你也不一定非得有为你解决所有问题的能力不可。

当你生气时对他用力的发脾气的时候，

他也不一定要完全承认你的所作所为是对的。

只要他，

总能包容这样的你，

总能陪着这样的你，

总能迁就这样的你，

总能爱着这样的你，

总能疼爱着这样的你。。。

只要，

他能够跟这样的你共同努力的生活，

这样，就够了。。。

Value-based management

2010-06-14T18:26:00.010+08:00

Value-based management

l Is a managerial approach, its primary purpose is long-run shareholder wealth maximization.

l All the decision making of the company is in order to increase value of the company.

l The total market value of company = Total market value of equity + Total market value of bond

Earning-based management

Problem:

1. accounting profit of a company is high effected by accounting system and accounting standard of the company;

2. Accounting profit does not mention investors’ expect;

3. Ignore time value of money. Sometime the company cannot receive money immediately after sell the good, because of credit;

4. Ignore risk.

Performance spread = Actual rate of return – Required rate of return

How a business create value

Corporate value

= Present value of cash flows within planning horizon + Present value of cash flows with after planning horizon

² Normally “within planning horizon” can increase corporate value

² Normally “after planning horizon” cannot increase corporate value; therefore the “present value of cash flow after planning horizon” is 0.

To expand or not expand?

²  Estimate whether expand or not expand the project base on the performance spread.
²  Positive performance spread means NPV = +
²  Negative performance spread means NPV = -
²  Grow = invest
²  Shrink = not invest

Value creation and SBU performance spreads

A = reject, use the resource here to other project
B = spent more time to monitor this business. The company will close down this in future because it can not increase so much value for the company.
E = the investment is low, the value creation is low, the company can try to allocate resource from A to E.

The value action pentagon (the action can consider to use to create value)
1.    Increase the return on existing capital
-       Increase actual rate of return on capital.
-       Calculation in page 329.

2.    Raise investment in positive spread units
-       Calculation in page 330.

3.    Divest assets (剥离资产)
-       They cancel the business A (like clothing business) and invest in business B (like toy business).
-       Calculation in page 330.

4.    Extend the planning horizon
-       If the company can increase planning horizon, the company can increase value creation every years.
-       Calculation in page 330.

5.    Lower the required rate of return
-       Lower the cost of capital of company.
-       Calculation in page 331.

The role of the corporate centre in a value-based company
l Portfolio planning, the prefer way to allocate resource to those SBUs, to create great value for company.
l Managing strategic value drivers shared by two or more SBUs. Share certain resource with certain unit / department.
l Provide the pervading philosophy and governing objective
l The overall structure of the organization. Need to consider the culture, vision and mission and etc of company.

Value-creation metrics (The method to make decision)
1.    Cash flow
l Corporate value
= present value of free cash flows from operations + the value of non-operating assets
l Shareholder value from operations
       = present value of free cash flows from operations - debt
l Total shareholder value
= shareholder value from operation + value of non-operating assets

² Value of non-operating asset = the asset which is own by company no use in the moment.

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2.    Shareholder value analysis (SVA) : Rappaport's value drivers
l Shareholder value analysis is forward looking.
l Use to evaluating the inherent value of the equity invested in a firm.
l Company should focus on the key value driver. The 7 terms of company should focus on estimate are:
i.              Sales growth rate
ii.            Operating profit margin
iii.           Tax rate
iv.           Fixed capital investment
v.            Working capital investment
vi.           The planning horizon (forecast period)
vii.          The required rate of return
l Assumption:
                i.          A business is worth the NPV of its future cash flows, discounted at the appropriate cost of capital.
               ii.          Sales of company will increase constant growth rate.
              iii.          The operating profit margin is a constant percentage of sales.
              iv.          Profit means profit before deduction of interest and tax.
               v.          The tax rate is a constant percentage of the operating profit.
              vi.          Fixed capital and working capital investment are related to the increase in sales.

Corporate value
= Present value of operating cash flows within the planning horizon (‘forecast period’)
+ Present value of operating cash flows after the planning horizon
+ The current value of marketable securities and other non-operating investments, e.g. government bonds

Advantage

Disadvantage

It helps managers focus on value-creating activities.
-       Acquisition and divestment strategies,
-       capital structure and dividend policies,
-       performance measures,
-       transfer pricing and
-       executive compensation are seen in a new light

Constant percentage increases in value drivers lack realism in some circumstances.
-       No necessary that the sales, investment in fixed capital, investment is working capital, operating profit will increase constant.

It can be misused in target setting.

Data availability, because many firms’ accounting systems are not equipped to provide the necessary input data.

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3.    Economic profit (EP)
(i.)    Entity approach
Economic Profit (Entity approach)
= Performance spread x Invested capital
= (Return in capital - WACC) x Invested capital
= (Return in capital x Invested capital) – (WACC x Invested capital)
= Operating profit before interest after tax – Capital charges

² Return of capital
= Actual Return on capita
= Equity capital + Debt capital

(ii.) Equity approach
Economic Profit (Equity approach)
= Operation profit after deduction of tax – (Invested equity capital x Required return on equity)
= (Operation profit before interest deduction and after tax deduction - Interest paid) – (Invested equity capital x Required return on equity)

Economic Profit (Equity approach)
= (Return on equity – Required return on equity) x Invested equity capital

Advantage

Disadvantage

-       Every manager is rewarded for paying close attention to the cost associated with using capital.
(每个经理奖励，密切关注与使用资金有关的费用)

-       The balance sheet does not reflect invested capital.

-       It can be used to evaluate strategic options that produce returns over a number of years.
(它可以被用于评估在一定数量的岁月期间导致回归的战略选择)

-       Economic profit depends on balance sheet, easy affect by accounting standard and accounting system.
-       Because different company have different accounting standard and accounting system.

-       It can be used to look back at how the unit has performed relative to the amount of capital used each year as well as creating future targets in terms of Economic profit.
(可以被用于看单位怎样执行了相对相当数量资本每年使用并且创造未来目标根据EP)

-       High economic profit and negative NPV can go together.
-       Because accounting profit base on historical value; NPV base on actual market value.

-       Economic Profit per unit can be calculated.

-       Difficult to count some resource which is share to more than one unit.

4.    Economic value added (EVA)
l Economic value analysis = backward looking, a measure of performance.
l Economic value analysis evaluating how much value a firm actually has created

EVA = Adjusted invested capital x (Adjusted return on capital – WACC)
EVA = Adjusted operating profits after tax – (Adjusted invested capital return x WACC)

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5.    Total shareholder return
= (Total return / Initial share price) x 100
= [(Dividend per share + Change in share price) / Initial share price] x 100
= {[Dividend per share + (Share price at end of period – Initial share price)] / Initial share price} x 100

² Total return = Dividend per share + (Change in share price)

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6.    Market value added
MVA = Market value − Invested capital

l Positive MVA = value has been created
l Negative MVA = value has been destroyed.

² Market value = Current value of debt, preference shares and ordinary shares
² Invested capital = All the cash raised from finance providers or retained from earnings to finance new investment in the business, since the company was founded

Capital Structure

2010-06-14T18:16:00.001+08:00

Gearing

1. Operating gearing

- Refer to the percentage of fixed cost in the total cost.

- High operating gearing means high business risk.

- High operating gearing means the fixed cost of the company is high and variable cost is low.

- High fixed cost will bring high risk to company, because company can not cut the fixed cost in short term.

2. Financial gearing

- Use to analysis the value of company actually how many percent is coming from debt.

(i) Capital gearing

Ø Focuses on the total capital is in the form of debt.

(ii) Income gearing

Ø Look at the proportion of income is taken by interest charges to debt holder.

- High financial gearing means high financial risk, because no matter company get profit or loss also necessary to pay fixed amount interest to debt holders in certain period.

- If the company does not have enough cash flow to afford it, it will cause the company bankrupt.

Modigliani-Miller Model

Assumptions of Modigliani-Miller Model

There is no taxation.
In prefect capital market everybody have full information and no transaction cost. They know which share is good and no need agency fee and etc.
No cost of financial distress and bankruptcy.
Can sell or buy any share immediately will not cost.
Interest change is same between individual and company borrowing.

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Modigliani-Miller Proposition I

- In a perfect market, the market value of geared firm (V_L) is same as ungeared firm (V_U). à V_L = V_U

- The capital structure can not affect the value of company.

- Company can only increase their firm’s value by making good investment decision. Capital structure is financial decision.

- Only expected return and risk will affect the value of firm.

- If there is mispriced, geared firm (V_L) not equal to ungeared firm (V_U) , investor can sell the overvalue share and buy undervalue share to earn arbitrage profit.

- Therefore, value is not affected by financial decision(capital structure) but investment decision(risk)

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Modigliani-Miller Proposition II

- When the firm increases the debt level (borrowing), the cost of equity will also increase.

- Because shareholders will see the risk of their investment increase when the firm increase the debt level (borrowing), therefore shareholders will require high level of return, so the cost of equity of firm increase.

- k_E = k₀ + (V_D / V_E) ( k₀ – k_D)

² k_D : the interest rate (cost of debt)

² k_E : the return on (levered) equity (cost of equity)

² k₀ : the return on unlevered equity (cost of capital)

² V_D : the value of debt

² V_E : the value of levered equity

- Expected rate of return of equity (kE) is affected by the DE Ratio

- VD / VE = Debt Equity Ratio (DE Ratio)

- When VD ↑ , VD / VE ↑ à kE ↑, means cost of equity increase. Therefore, the required rate of return increases.

- Invest in gear firms have a higher risk and higher return. It is actually a trade off between risk and return

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Modigliani-Miller Proposition III

- Rate of return new projects = WACC and WACC is constant regardless is geared and ungeared firm.

- Value of firm will remain the same.

- An investment should be accepted when NPV>0.

- Focus on investment decision, not financial decision.

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The MM Propositions I & II (with Corporate Taxes)

- With corporate tax, value of geared firm will increase.

- This is because overall cost of capital (WACC) reduce due to the cost of debt fall after the tax saving.

- Tax saving only occurs for firm that issue debt because interest payment will reduce the profit which lead to a tax deduction. Company cash inflow will increase.

Proposition I

- V_L = V_U + T_C V_D

² VL > VU because TCVD > 0

Proposition II

- k_E = k₀ + (V_D/V_E)×(1-T_C)×(k₀ - k_D)

² kE1 = k0 + (VD / VE) (k0 – kD)

kE1 ↑ when VD ↑

² kE2 = k0 + (VD / VE) x (1-Tc)(k0 – kD)

kE2 ↑ when VD ↑

² But, kE1 ↑ > kE2 ↑ due to tax benefit.

² Overall cost of capital reducesà value of firm increase.

Additional considerations

- The financing decision (capital structure) can not affect the value of firm. But after tax come in the result will different.

- After the tax come the elements need to consider are:

1. Financial Distress

- The major disadvantage for a company taking high level of gearing (debt) is it will increase the financial distress, and increase probability of bankrupt because the firm is necessary to return the borrowing.

- Although increase debt can increase tax saving, but also will increase cost of financial distress (financial risk) and probability of bankrupt.

2. Agency Costs

- Agency costs are the incremental costs of having an agent make decisions for a principal.

- In a company have shareholders, bond holders and management terms these 3 parties.

- Interest and information that they can get is different. Manager will have more information compare to the shareholders and bondholders because of unequal information between this 3 parties, it lead to manager cheat the other 2 parties to benefit himself.

3. Borrowing Capacity

- Lenders prefer secured lending, and this sets an upper limit on gearing.

- Because if the company was unable to afford the interest payment the lenders can sell company tangible assets to get the compensation.

- Therefore, the borrowing capacity of company is depend on it tangible assets.

- Investors willing to invest more if the company has high tangible assets. It will cause the company easy to issue bond. It will lead to high gearing level.

- Investors not willing to invest more if the company has low tangible assets. It will cause the company difficult to issue bond. It will lead to low gearing level.

- Tend to argue for lowering debt level.

4. Managerial Preferences

- The capital structure of the company will impact manager preferences as well.

- Most of the time, the manager will not increase too must borrowing (debt) to cause or increase the probability bankrupt, because when the company bankrupt the manager will lost their jobs.

- Tend to argue for lowering debt level.

5. Pecking Order

- Base on pecking order, when the firm designs to invest in new project they will consider about fist use internal finance, second issues debt and last issues equity.

- The company only will issue debt and equity when the internal finance is not enough.

- Reasons of pecking order view are transaction costs and asymmetric information (adverse selection).

- In the pecking order view, the firm should use the method of financing with the least amount of transaction costs first. Financing methods with higher transaction costs are used next.

- Base on the pecking order the company’s gearing level will low, if the company internal fund is enough.

- Base on the pecking order the company’s gearing level will high, if the company internal fund is not enough.

- Uncertainty.

6. Financial Slack

- Means the company has enough cash and excess debt capacity.

- Therefore, the company will not fully use debt capacity and increase borrowing (debt) until lack level although optimal.

- Tend to argue for lowering debt level.

7. Signaling

- Manager will not let company in risk level. Therefore they will not easy issue bond because they need to pay large amount of interest.

- If they are not confident to generate high cash flow in future they will not issue bond to let company in risk level because they will lost the job if company bankrupt.

- Although some people said manager issue share show the share price of company is overprice in market but in other side we also can describe that the company not able to pay fixed bond interest (do not have enough cash flow).

- Uncertainty.

8. Control

- Most of the time the company will choice to increasing debt financing (issue debt) to increase fund because the shareholders not willing to affect their ownership.

- In order to avoid the share of company will buy by the rival, most of the company may be choice to increasing debt financing.

9. Tax Exhaustion

- Many companies do not have very high debt level because their profits are not high enough to benefit from benefit of tax deduction.

- Tend to argue for lowering debt level.

10. Industry Group Gearing

- There is no prefer formula can be use to establish the best debt to equity ratio for firm in all situation.

- Different industry have different gearing ratio.

- Uncertainty.

Some further thoughts

Motivation

- Debt is fixed payment, it will pressure manager to perform better to generate more cash flow to pay dividend to avoid company bankrupt.

- Tend to argue for raising debt level.

Reinvestment Risk

- High debt will lead to the company pay dividend to debt holders, thereby denying spare cash to the managers.

- Tend to argue for raising debt level.

Operating and Strategic Efficiency

- Geared firm will make decision carefully because they need to measure have enough or stable cash flow to pay bond dividend.

- Tend to argue for raising debt level.

Dividend Policy

2010-06-14T17:55:00.002+08:00

Assumption:

1. No change in investment opportunities and returns on business investment.

2. No change on company capital structure.

- No change on debt to equity ratio.

- No change in gearing ratio.

Modigliani-Miller’s dividend irrelevancy proposition

- The value of company will not affect by capital structure of company.

- The dividend policy of company will not affect the share value, market value and shareholders’ wealth.

- The company should not give up positive Net Present Value project to increase dividend.

Modigliani-Miller’s dividend irrelevancy proposition – the conditions

1. Ignore taxes. (company and personal taxes)

2. Ignore transaction cost.

- When investors buy or sell no need pay any fee.

- No cost of issue new share.

3. Lending and borrowing’s interest rate is same.

4. All parties (company and investors) of market have full information.

5. Investors are indifferent between dividends and capital gains.

Dividend – irrelevance position

- Under the value of dividend unchanged situation, it will not cause shareholders unsatisfied although the company changes the timing to pay dividend to shareholders. (don’t pay dividend to shareholders)

- That is because the shareholders can get the value from capital gain, although do no have dividend.

- Therefore the dividend policy will not affect the shareholders’ wealth.

- Under dividend – irrelevance position, dividend policy will not important.

Dividends as a Residual

- Company only will pay dividend after cover the future investment (required rate of return of the project) and have extra fund.

- Company’s value increase only when the company invest in positive Net Present Value project.

- The shareholders should receive the cash because they can use it to invest in other firms.

Dividend – relevance position

Under this real world the dividend policy of a company can affect the company.

The Clientele Effect

- Investors will attract by company which can fulfill their requirement.

- Different dividend policy of company can attract different kind of investors.

- Therefore each company will build up a dividend policy which can satisfy and retain their shareholders.

- In order to satisfy and retain the type of shareholder that the company target, each company will promote different dividend policy. Such as:

Ø Promote high dividend payment, or

Ø Promote low payout dividend payment, or

Ø Promote stable dividend payment, or

Ø Promote fluctuating dividend payment. (dividend payment depend by company earning, high earning pay high dividend, low earning pay low dividend)

Taxes

- Personal taxes.

- Taxation can affect investors whether prefer get capital gain or get dividend.

- Individual shareholder can sell share by high price with no tax deducted, if they receive dividend pay by company they need to pay tax to government.

- High tax rate will lead shareholders prefer low dividend payment.

- Low tax rate will lead shareholders prefer high dividend payment.

Dividends as conveyors of information

- No full information between shareholders and management term.

- Shareholders are the owner but not manager of a company, shareholder only can get company information from annual report or decision making dividend of the company.

- Therefore, if the company increase the dividend payment will give the shareholders a good signal about the company have favorable prospects.

- Dividends as conveyors of information will cause company:

Ø Promote high dividend payment.

ü Some shareholder will consider that high dividend payment may be will lead to company do no have enough cash to do future investment or invest positive Net Present Value project, it will affect the future firm’s value.

Ø Promote low dividend payment.

ü Some shareholder will consider that low dividend payment can let the company have enough cash to do future investment or invest positive Net Present Value project, it will increase the future firm’s value.

Ø Promote stable dividend payment.

ü Only strong financial background company able to remain stable dividend payment no matter the company gain or less.

Resolution of Uncertainty – Bird-in-the-hand

- Shareholders prefer receive high dividend today than receive in future because future is uncertainty.

- Bird-in-the-hand will encourage the company:

Ø Promote high dividend payment.

ü Shareholders receive high dividend today to do other invest to increase their shareholders’ wealth, because future is uncertainty.

Ø Promote fluctuating dividend payment.

ü Current dividend is better than uncertainty in future, because the shareholders don’t know the company will get earning in future or not.

- The correct way to solve the uncertainty are:

(i) Do no receive high dividend payment today because it will lead to company do no have enough cash to do future investment or invest positive Net Present Value project, it will affect the future firm’s value.

(ii) Increase cost of capital or use high cost of capital.

Owner control (agency theory)

- Many companies will decide to pay high dividend and issuing new shares to raise cash for investment.

- Because no full information between shareholders and management term, therefore shareholders worry management term will invest in negative Net Present Value project or project which is only benefit management term.

- Therefore, shareholders will require high dividend, management term need fund for investment they need to ask shareholders. The shareholders can get the currently information of company.

- Disadvantage of owner control:

Ø Company need to pay transaction cost when issue new share, it will reduce firm’s value.

Ø Shareholders need to pay tax when receive dividend, it will reduce shareholders’ wealth.

- Owner control will cause company

Ø Promote high dividend payment.

ü High dividend payment wills easy shareholders to monitor the management term, because the manager need to provide more information to shareholders when decide to invest new project.

Ø Promote fluctuating dividend payment.

ü Shareholders can get the signal directly base on the dividend payment. If company gain they will receive high dividend. If company loss they will receive low dividend or don’t have dividend.

Scrip Dividends (Share Dividend)

- Company paying share dividend to shareholders not normal cash dividend.

- Advantage of scrip dividends

Ø That cash does not leave the company.

Ø Shareholders can save tax and transaction cost by holding share.

Share Repurchase and Special Dividends

- Share repurchase means company buys back share by its own stock, it can increase EPS, and the share price of company.

- Special dividend is similar to a normal dividend but is usually bigger and paid on a one-off basis.

The two key questions

1. Can shareholder wealth be increased by changing the pattern of dividends over a period of years?

Ans: Yes, but that is not straightforward formula for us to calculate the best pattern. Because there are many different and unpredictable factors will affect it, such as clientele preference, tax system and other.

2. Is a steady, stable dividend growth rate better than one which varies from year to year depending on the firm’s internal need for funds?

Ans: Perform well or bad in no under control. Dividend payment remains stable or fluctuation which one is better and what reason affect it will show in following:

The dividend decision – the four forces

Forces promoting a high dividend payment

(i) Some clienteles

- Shareholders preference, different shareholders have different preference.

(ii) Owner control (agency theory)

- Shareholders require high dividend can let them easy to monitor management team, because manager needs to ask shareholders when need fund for investment. The shareholders can get the currently information of company.

(iii) Uncertainty (bird-in-the-hand)

- Shareholders receive high dividend today to do other invest to increase their shareholders’ wealth, because future is uncertainty.

(iv) Signalling (Dividends as conveyors of information)

- The company increase the dividend payment will give the shareholders a good signal about the company have favorable prospects.

Forces promoting a low payout dividend payment

(i) Tax system

- Different country will have different tax system. High tax rate will lead shareholders prefer low dividend payment

(ii) Some clienteles

- Shareholders preference, different shareholders have different preference.

(iii) High growth potential

- The company has high growth potential therefore need more fund for future investment.

(iv) Unstable earning

- Because of earning in future is uncertainty in order to measure company can save fund when company gain and have enough fund when company loss, company remain low dividend payment may be better.

(v) Avoid future dividend cuts

- If earning increase the dividend payment also will increase, if earning decrease the dividend payment also will decrease, because of future is uncertainty. In order to measure company can save fund when company gain and have enough fund when company loss, company remain low dividend payment may be better.

(vi) Lender agreement restrictions

- Company need to pay interest to debt holders first therefore no enough funds to pay high dividend to shareholders.

(vii) Low liquidity

- Company has no enough cash flow.

Forces promoting a stable dividend payment

(i) Some clienteles

- Shareholders preference, different shareholders have different preference.

(ii) Signalling

- Dividend policy change is difficult to justify whether it is good or bad signal. If investors interpret this signal is positive they will continue invest, if no they may be will quit. In order to avoid this kind of confusing remain stable may be better.

(iii) Avoid future dividend cuts

- If earning increase the dividend payment also will increase, if earning decrease the dividend payment also will decrease. In order to avoid dividend decrease, company will remain stable may be better.

(iv) Stability raises credit standing

- Only strong financial background company able to remain stable dividend payment no matter the company gain or less.

Forces promoting a fluctuating dividend payment

(i) Some clienteles

- Shareholders preference, different shareholders have different preference.

(ii) Owner control (agency theory)

- Shareholders will require high dividend, management term need fund for investment they need to ask shareholders. The shareholders can get the currently information of company. It can avoid manager invest in project which only benefit management term.

(iii) Uncertainty (bird-in-the-hand)

- Current dividend is better than future uncertainty dividend.

(iv) Signalling

- Shareholders can get the signal directly base on the dividend payment. If company gain they will receive high dividend. If company loss they will receive low dividend or don’t have dividend.

Practical constraints to dividend payment

Legal constraints

- Different country have different tax rate (personal tax in dividend income), therefore every company have different dividend policy.

Liquidity

- The earnings and cash flow of company is no 100% match, because of accounting profit problem. Therefore dividend payment can not 100% depend on the accounting profit earning.

Interest payment obligations

- Company need to pay interest to debt holders first before pay dividend to shareholders.

Investment opportunities

- Low investment opportunity company normally can pay high dividend currently.

A suggested action plan for a dividend policy

(How to decide whether pay high or low dividend)

Do forecast in “surplus” cash flow, the dividend will only pay without give up positive Net Present Value project.
Base on the forecast of the company, most of the company will still choice a stable dividend payment because future is uncertainty. Therefore, the company needs to retain some cash in hand for uncertainty future.
Forecast is no 100% correctly, maintain stable dividend payment if company earning is more than company forecast can pay share dividend.

Conclusion

The firm’s value and shareholders’ wealth will decrease when reject positive Net Present Value project to pay dividend.

Issuing new share will not benefit company because transaction cost will increase cost of capital of company and decrease firm’s value.

Pay dividend will not benefit shareholder because personal tax in dividend pay will reduce shareholders’ wealth.

Share dividend and can avoid paying cash dividend and retain cash in company.

Share repurchase can increase EPS, and the share price of company.

Company will pay dividend only when the company is low opportunity investment.

Most of company will maintain stable dividend payment. There do not prefer formula to calculate the optimal dividend-to-earning ratio.

霎那光辉

2010-06-03T23:25:00.002+08:00

有人说过，
霎那间的光辉不代表永恒。

但是，
对烟花而言，
那霎那间的光辉；
那霎那间的炫灿；
就是它们的一生、
它们的永恒。

找一个

2010-06-01T04:33:00.001+08:00

找一个，
可以爱你一辈子的人；
可以疼你一辈子的人；
可以宠你一辈子的人；
可以包容你一辈子的人；
可以迁就你一辈子的人。

找一个，
可以爱你、疼你、宠你、包容你、迁就你一辈子，
而你也深爱着他的人，
一起过一辈子吧！

找一个人

2010-05-29T16:25:00.000+08:00

找一个人，
当你开心时，你可以在他的面前欢笑；
当你难过时，你可以在他的面前大哭；
当你委屈时，你可以向他倾诉；
当你生气时，你可以不用对他掩饰。

找一个人，
在你卸妆后，他依然可以真心的称赞你漂亮；
在你换下美丽的衣裳过后，他依然可以真心的说你有魅力；
在你年华老去的时候，依然深爱着你。

找一个人，
一个可以接受真实的你的人，
一起过日子。

《来不及说我爱你》

2010-05-24T17:57:00.007+08:00

【作者】：匪我思存

【简介】：

已订婚的她，在无意间救下了一个英俊又权倾一方的贵公子，原本以为这只是一场擦肩而过的邂逅，谁知道他居然甘冒奇险，在婚礼上把她抢了过来，而等待他们的却不是王子与灰姑娘走入城堡的童话……人这一生能有多少个时刻会爱上一个人，而爱情中最大的悲剧就在于当那句“我爱你”还没来得及说出口的时候，你爱的那个人已消失在人海中。

【忘川感想】：
前言：
去年，因为喜欢钟汉良演的康熙（他真的很适合演康熙，把康熙演的好好），所以开始看看他资料，意外的发现了这《来不及说我爱你》。由于距离电视剧上映还有好长的一段时间，见其他网上的人对这个故事的原著赞不绝口，心痒难耐之下在学校假期时，终于找到了这小说来看（由于马来西亚应该是蛮难买到这本小说的，所以我看得这小说其实是从网络上下载的）。

看了匪我思存这小说之后，心情可说是受到了很大的震撼。另一半竟然很庆幸电视剧对后半部到结局都有所改编，因为我个人认为这原著小说的结局有点对小孩不宜的震撼，所以还是稍微改编的好。

由于我看的是小说版本的《来不及说我爱你》，所以我这里谈的是我读了这部小说后的心情以及感想。这部小说其实早已在好几个月前看完了，也早就想把心中的震撼以及感想写下，但是一直写不出来，为此我还在看了第二遍（我很少会在还记得内容的情况下再看第二遍的），但是却是千头万绪，心情杂乱，经常这几个月的沉淀，终于写得出来了。。。

另外，期待电视剧版本ing，以及感谢脉脉斜阳精美的制图。

感想：
伤害已造成，破镜无法重圆。。。

他要给的天下，不是她所需所求的。然而她所需的唯一，他给不到；她所求的成全和放手，他更是办不到。。。

在我看来，一开始尹静婉是爱她的未婚夫--许建彰的，即使后来日日面对慕容沣的殷勤，她心中所爱的依然是许建彰。然而，当许建彰因受到慕容沣的威胁而弃她离去之后，他们之间的爱出现了瑕疵，出现了裂痕。进而尹静婉没办法在如以往般爱许建彰了。取而代之的是对慕容沣的爱情。

尹静婉其实是完全可以理解许建彰当初的弃她远去，因为她明白要许建彰为了她而赔上自己全家的身家性命是不可能的，所以她原谅了他，继续他们之前的婚约。但是经过那次的背叛、离弃以及伤害。尹静婉已经无法再爱这个男人了，至少已经无法像以前那样。。。那之后，她心里有了另外一个人，那就是慕容沣。当她知道许建彰是被慕容沣吓跑之后，并没肯接受慕容沣，是因为她知道慕容沣其实也是一样的，就如许建彰一样无法为她放弃自己的身家性命。所以她说了非常痛心的一句“己所不能，勿责于人”，之后便随父回乡。

她回乡后，慕容沣再度出现要带她走，她没答应，是因为她心里清楚自己输不起。那里是她的根本理由，如果她和慕容沣一走了之，就等于抛弃她所有的根本。从此以后，她一无所有，她仅能拥有依靠的就只有慕容沣了，那是多么的无助，多么的冒险，她不敢，她害怕，所以她拒绝。

然而，她却戏剧性的从婚礼中逃走，冒着枪林弹雨直奔到慕容沣怀里，因为她感动于慕容沣竟然会为了劝她不要嫁给别人，而弃身家性命不顾,在和敌方苦战之时竟深入敌地；她感动的是慕容沣竟愿意为了她而输掉那场战争。因此她之前的所有不安、害怕在那一霎间全部都消失了——一个可以为了她连自己的宏图大业、身家性命都可以不顾的男人，日后是绝对不会背叛她的。她唯一害怕的是永远失去了慕容沣，所以她顾不得忠孝仁爱，不顾一切的，抛弃所有地奔向了慕容沣。但是，其实慕容沣那次只是耍了置之死地而后生的兵法战略。

我所得到的讯息就是，战局的走势早已在慕容沣的掌控之中，深入敌地除了是出之对尹静婉的爱之外，其实也包含了他对这场战争的十拿九稳，他那时并为陷入真正的困局。但是尹静婉不知道，她以为他可以为她倾其所有。他也不知道那些对尹静婉的意义，以及这些所代表的承诺，他也曾经一度以为他可以，可以一生不负尹静婉，但事实却是不行，时势却是不许。为了他的身家性命以及宏图大业，他最终注定要辜负，他最终决定另娶他人，谁也无法阻止他，即使是尹静婉跟她腹中的骨血也不行。

在我眼里，尹静婉是个一爱就可以很勇敢地彻底的去爱的女人。为了许建彰，她可以孤身犯险的去求慕容沣；为了许建彰，她可以置女人最重要的名节于度外跟慕容沣合作。之后，为了慕容沣，她可以毁掉她跟许建彰从小的情义，逃婚出走；为了慕容沣，她可以义无反顾的离开她的父母，让她的父母伤心、难过甚至颜面无存；为了慕容沣，她抛弃她原有的一切，变成除了他便一无所有的女人。

她可以为了自己所爱的倾其所有、义无反顾。她所求的却只有一个，就是唯一的爱，就是无论发生任何事情都不会背叛对方的爱情。许建彰做不到，慕容沣也做不到。她可以理解他们的苦衷，她可以原谅他们给的伤害，但是她理解以及原谅不代表她可以接受。就如她可以理解以及原谅许建彰，却无法再如以前般爱他一样。同样的，尹静婉也无法再留在慕容沣身边了，即使慕容沣哀求她，甚至是禁锢她，她还是得逃。即使她知道其中困难重重，甚至性命会受到威胁，她还是不顾一切的选择逃跑。当爱情已经伤了、破了、碎了、裂了，谁也无法留住她。

慕容沣虽然还是把尹静婉捉了回来，但是他却永远的失去了他们的骨肉，永远失去了能够绑住她的韧带了。尹静婉在得到慕容沣的“发妻” -- 程谨之的帮助下，离开了慕容沣的身边。

若干年后，慕容沣已经是总司令了，势力早已远远的超越程家，也就是说他其实已经可以不再顾虑与程家的婚姻了。这时，慕容沣再次见到尹静婉，但尹静婉已成了程谦之的哥哥 -- 程信之的妻子，还生了个与她很相像的女儿兜兜。小说里的程信之是个非常有包容量的男人，他不仅包容了尹静婉与慕容沣的过去，他还真正的爱上尹静婉，为了娶她，他可以无视慕容沣的势力，以及尹静婉将会给程谨之以及程家所带来的窘境。他让她从惊涛波浪中，回归平和。他让她破碎的心重新愈合——他重新给了她幸福。

但慕容沣，他恼，他恨！他再次求尹静婉，求她离开程信之，希望他们能回到从前。但是尹静婉已经无法再爱他，她现在爱的是她的丈夫程信之和女儿兜兜。慕容沣根本无法理解程信之和兜兜对尹静婉的重要性，他只知道他真的是恨极、恼极，因此他制造了车祸害死了程信之还有兜兜。悲痛欲绝的尹静婉带着兜兜的尸体在慕容沣面前，用慕容沣以前送给她的宝石手枪自尽，断气前说了句让可以慕容沣万劫不复的话，那就是：“兜兜今年七岁，她是你。。。”，慕容沣终于彻底的崩溃了，从前所执着的一切，什么宏图大业，身家性命，一下子就变得一文不值，毫无意义，烟消云散。纵使程谨之一再证明，兜兜的的确确是程信之的亲生骨肉，尹静婉只是为了报复他才说那些话也好，慕容沣已经什么也听不进去了。尹静婉死了，他所有所有的一切都毫无意义了。

看到这个结局，我第一个感觉是无底的震撼。在前面慕容沣是多么的风度翩翩，但是到了后来却变成了无可救药的丧心病狂。从他开始禁锢尹静婉时我就开始毛骨悚然了，虽然可以解释为那是因为他太爱她、太害怕失去她，但毛骨竦然的感觉丝毫不减，因为他根本没顾及尹静婉的痛苦，他只看到了他自己要什么，要怎么样。但是他没想要顾及到另一个血淋淋、活生生的她想要什么，想要怎样。他似乎忘了是他自己辜负尹静婉在先，他根本就已经毫无资格了。他似乎理所当然的认为尹静婉应该要理解他的苦衷，接受他的选择还有安排。他忘了，尹静婉也是个人，她也可以有自己的选择，她也可以有自己的安排，她也有权利去追求她自己想要的幸福。他忘了，尹静婉为了他，她早已义无反顾的倾其所有，对他，她无愧。然而他却负了她的承诺，欠了她的幸福，更毁了她的后来。

然而这令人痛心，且震撼的结局却是非常合理的，慕容沣权倾一方，于天下予取予求，他要的东西从来没有的不到的，从来只有女人希望的到他的爱，从来没有人能让他哀求。成全与祝福，或许是他一辈子都学不到的学问。。。

爱上

2010-05-21T17:14:00.001+08:00

真正聪明的人，

会爱上一个爱自己的人。

不够聪明的人，

会爱上一个不爱自己的人。

什么才是真，什么才是假？

2010-05-21T04:01:00.003+08:00

到底
什么才是真的，
什么才是假的？

你愿意相信的就是真的，
你不愿相信的就是假的。

真真假假

2010-05-21T04:00:00.000+08:00

看得见的，不一定是真的；
看不见的，也不一定是假的。

Advantage	Disadvantage
It helps managers focus on value-creating activities. - Acquisition and divestment strategies, - capital structure and dividend policies, - performance measures, - transfer pricing and - executive compensation are seen in a new light	Constant percentage increases in value drivers lack realism in some circumstances. - No necessary that the sales, investment in fixed capital, investment is working capital, operating profit will increase constant.
	It can be misused in target setting.
	Data availability, because many firms’ accounting systems are not equipped to provide the necessary input data.

Advantage	Disadvantage
- Every manager is rewarded for paying close attention to the cost associated with using capital. (每个经理奖励，密切关注与使用资金有关的费用)	- The balance sheet does not reflect invested capital.
- It can be used to evaluate strategic options that produce returns over a number of years. (它可以被用于评估在一定数量的岁月期间导致回归的战略选择)	- Economic profit depends on balance sheet, easy affect by accounting standard and accounting system. - Because different company have different accounting standard and accounting system.
- It can be used to look back at how the unit has performed relative to the amount of capital used each year as well as creating future targets in terms of Economic profit. (可以被用于看单位怎样执行了相对相当数量资本每年使用并且创造未来目标根据EP)	- High economic profit and negative NPV can go together. - Because accounting profit base on historical value; NPV base on actual market value.
- Economic Profit per unit can be calculated.	- Difficult to count some resource which is share to more than one unit.